基于LSTM的海洋表面短期风速预测研究     

李亚蒙  孙宝楠  丁军航  官晟 《海洋科学》2022,46(11):55-66

为实现对海面风速精确的短期预测,提出了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM,long short-term memory)神经网络的短期风速预测模型,选取OceanSITES数据库中单个浮标站点采集的风速历史数据作为模型输入,经过训练设置最佳参数等步骤,实现了以LSTM方法,对该站点所在海区海面风速在各季节性代表月份海面风速的24h短期预测。同时通过不同预测时长的实验以及与BP(back propagation)神经网络神经网络和径向基函数神经网络(radial basis function neural network,RBF)的预测效果对比实验,证明了LSTM预测方法相比上述两种神经网络预测方法,在海表面风速预测应用中的优越性。最后通过多个海域对应的站点风速数据预测实验,证明了LSTM神经网络模型的普遍适用性,由相关系数和预测误差的分析可知该方法具备应对急剧变化数据的预测稳定性,可以作为海洋表面风速短期预测的一种可靠方法。  相似文献   

The effect of current and wave on whitecap coverage via relative speed： the Atlantic Ocean case     

于婷  邓增安  管长龙 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2009,27(4):924-930

Whitecapping plays an important role in many air-sea exchange and upper ocean processes. Traditionally, whitecap coverage is parameterized as a function of wind speed only. At present, the relative speed of ocean current to wind is considered to be important in the air-sea exchange parameterization which is the function of wind speed only. In this paper, the effects of ocean surface velocity (current velocity and wave induced velocity) and the wave parameters on whitecap coverage through relative speeds are investigated, by applying a 2-parameter whitecap coverage model to the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that the impacts of both current and wave on whitecap coverage are considerable in the most part of the Atlantic Ocean. It is interesting that the effect of wave is more significant than that of current.  相似文献   

体感温度客观分析方法研究     

陈莉  张海东  王承伟  李帅 《成都信息工程学院学报》2009,24(3)

影响人体体感温度的气象要素主要包括温度、湿度、风以及太阳辐射,依据这些气象要素影响人体体感温度的原理,确定了平均气温与体感温度相同时的临界相对湿度、风速及太阳辐射值.以全国有水平面直接辐射曝辐量观测项目的77个气象台站的历年逐日4次定时观测资料为基础,把相邻两个白昼(夜间)的气温差作为因变量,相对湿度差、风速差、垂直辐射差(白昼)作为自变量,以旬为时问分辨率,建立了逐旬多元回归方程.各地所建立的逐句多元线性拟合方程拟合优度相当高,F统计量检验也充分证明线性回归方程总体成立,从气候意义、统计角度来看该方法都具有充分的可行性.  相似文献   

Analysis on monthly-averaged distribution of sea surface wind and wave over the seas southeast of Asia using ERS-2 scatterometer data     

赵喜喜  侯一筠  李明悝  齐鹏 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2006,24(1):97-102

The wind system over the seas southeast of Asia (SSEA) plays an important role in China's climate variation. In this paper, ERS scatterometer winds covering the period from January 2000 to December 2000 and the area of 2-41 °N, 105- 130°E were analyzed with a distance-weighting interpolation method and the monthly mean distribution of the sea surface wind speed were given. The seasonal characteristics of winds in the SSEA were analyzed. Based on WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model, distribution of significant wave height was calculated.  相似文献   

Methods and Results of an Optical Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations     

G. Beskin  N. Borisov  V. Komarova  S. Mitronova  S. Neizvestny  V. Plokhotnichenko  M. Popova 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,248(1-2):51-57

I summarize fully-sampled observations of the 3 mm emission from CO and HCN in the inner arcminute of NGC 1068. The CO emission is distributed in the form of a molecular bar, coincident with the infrared bar, from which emanate two spiral arms. A relatively weak concentration of CO line emission is found at the nucleus. By contrast, the HCN emission is strongly concentrated at the center, with relatively weak emission in the region of the star-forming arms. The ratio of HCN to CO integrated intensities is about 0.6 over the central r ≉ 175 pc and is the highest ratio measured in the center of any galaxy; the ratio reflects the high thermal pressure (TK ~ 50 K, n[H2] ~ 4 × 106 cm-3) in the few hundred parsecs surrounding the nucleus. The kinematics in the star-forming arms are well described by circular orbits, with ordered noncircular motions of < 30 km s-1 that may be attributed to spiral density wave streaming. Interior to the bar, noncircular motions dominate the gas kinematics. A model of the CO kinematics contrains any Inner Lindblad Resonance to be close to the location of the hundred-parsec scale HCN ‘disk’. At the nucleus, the spatially unresolved CO emission shows a triplet velocity structure characteristic of kinematically independent regions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Inbank and overbank velocity conditions in an arid zone anastomosing river     

A. David Knighton  Gerald C. Nanson 《水文研究》2002,16(9):1771-1791

Relative to those at sub‐bankfull flow, hydraulic conditions at overbank flow, whether in the channel or on the floodplain, are poorly understood. Here, velocity conditions are analysed over an unusually wide range of flows in the arid zone river of Cooper Creek with its complex system of anastomosing channels and large fluctuations in floodplain width. At‐a‐station hydraulic geometry relationships reveal sharp discontinuities in velocity at the inbank–overbank transition, the nature of the discontinuity varying with the degree of flow confinement and the level of channel–floodplain interaction. However, despite inter‐sectional differences, velocities remain modest throughout the flow range in this low‐gradient river, and the large increases in at‐a‐station discharge are principally accommodated by changes in cross‐sectional area. Velocity distribution plots suggest that within‐channel conditions during overbank flow are characterized by a central band of high velocity which penetrates far toward the bed, helping to maintain already deep cross‐sections. Floodplain resistance along Cooper Creek is concentrated at channel bank tops where vegetation density is highest, and the subsequent flow retardation is transmitted across the surface of the channels over distances as large as 50–70 m. The rough floodplain surface affects flood wave transmission, producing significant decreases in wave speeds downstream. The character of the wave‐speed–discharge relationship also changes longitudinally, from log–linear in the upper reaches to nonlinear where the floodplain broadens appreciably. The nonlinear form is similar in several respects to relationships proposed for more humid rivers, with flood wave speed reaching an intermediate maximum at about four‐fifths bankfull discharge before decreasing to a minimum at approximately Q_2·33. It does not regain the value at the intermediate maximum until the 10 year flood, by which time floodplain depths have become relatively large and broad floodways more active. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ESTIMATION OF SOUNDING ABILITY OF A BRILLOUIN LIDAR IN THE EAST CHINA SEA     

吴东宋小全  刘智深 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2001,19(3):193-199

Vertical profiles of sound speed in the sea can be measured by using laser excited Brillouin scattering. In this paper the dependence of the accuracy of sound speed measurement on the accuracy of the Brillouin shift measurement is analyzed. We calculated the maximum detecting depths of sound speed to an accuracy of 1 m/s by lidar with different laser pulse energy, platform altitude, telescope aperture and lidar effective attenuation coefficient. The estimation of sounding ability in the East China Sea is made in some stations. These data can be used in the design of Brillouin Lidar for the China Sea.  相似文献   

A high speed near infrared photometer for lunar occultation studies     

Ashok  N. M.  Chandrasekhar  T.  Ragland  Sam  Bhatt  H. C. 《Experimental Astronomy》1994,4(3-4):177-188

A recently developed near infrared high speed photometer intended for lunar oc-cultation studies is described. The primary scientific objective is to reach milli arc second levels of angular resolution so that circumstellar structure of the occulted sources can be resolved. Near infrared sky brightness close to the lunar limb is also studied. Angular diameter derived from the observed occultation of IRC +20169 is presented and system performance discussed.  相似文献   

衡阳风变化及风能蕴藏量评估          下载免费PDF全文

陈涛  袁智生  李超  何炜炜  罗喜光 《中低纬山地气象》2018,42(5):65-69

利用衡阳9站1970—2016年测风数据,通过气候倾向率分析风速年、年代际变化,M-K检验风速突变年份,运用有效风能密度评估各区域风能蕴藏量,其结论如下:衡阳风速总体呈下降趋势,衡山减少最明显,风速减少极显著区域未出现突变;低海拔区风速集中在0～3. 4 m/s(85. 8%),1991—2016年风频两极分化,低速及高速区增多,中间出现断层。南岳山风速范围广,2005—2016年强风频区有缺失,主风频在3～5区间;2010年全面采用高灵敏度自动测风仪,低海拔区静风迅速减少;按照有效风能密度定义,南岳山风能丰富,低海拔区未达到可利用标准。  相似文献   

关于带有协作/竞争机制时变积分器网络一致性的收敛速率     

马麒超  秦家虎  李曼 《南京气象学院学报》2018,10(6):658-664

本文探讨了时变无向网络达到状态一致过程中的收敛速率问题.首先基于一般的时变无向网络展开研究,证明了其收敛速率随耦合权重的增加而提高.同时,给出了收敛速率的明确下界,并指出这个下界是耦合权重的线性函数.基于这些结论,本文研究了带符号网络的收敛速率问题,发现只要带有正权值的边具有（δ,T）连通性,就可以增大这些边的权重而保持其余边（带有负权值）不变,使一致性以指数的速率达到.本文的证明过程主要基于完全一致可观这一概念.另外,本文也得到了这样的结论：一致性误差值可以从系统一段时间内的相对状态值中重建.这对于分布式网络中滤波器的状态估计有一定的借鉴意义.  相似文献